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Topic: Hey Jim where is Ernesto going??< Next Oldest | Next Newest >
Kodiaz Offline
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Posted: Aug. 28 2006,14:28

Hey Jimbo where is this boy going?
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Capn Jimbo Offline
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Posted: Aug. 28 2006,18:18

Pschologically Ernesto arrives just about a year after Katrina, and after a period of relative calm that might better be described as a period of foreboding.  We all enjoyed the calm, but we all knew the day of reckoning would come sooner or later.

And Ernesto has been frustrating to say the least.  We were faced with a series of conflicting factors that continued to change.  Ernesto first heads for western Cuba and freaks out the Gulf. Then shifts east a bit, but faces conflict with the mountains of Haiti and Cuba.  It becomes a hurricane, then hits Haiti, drops down to barely a storm.  Then spins up again, shifts east, and hits Cuba - back down to nearly a depression.

Now east once again as Ernesto's sight shifts again.  Cuba's 4000 foot mountains are doin a number and Ernesto is busted up bad.  But the eastward shift has slowed and we might finally be getting a handle.

Ernesto will surely spin up - the conditions are perfect to gain strength, but due to the eastward shift, he doesn't have the time to really get nasty.  Had Ernesto continued west the Gulf would have REALLY freaked out, and we'd be looking at a serious, serious hurricane.

Instead the sources I'm seein seem to indicate that Ernest will hit the tip of the Florida penis at maybe 60 to 65 mph (strong tropical storm).  Then up the vas deferens to Okeechobee in a weakening reverse orgasm - and then curving over Canaveral and out to sea - as a weak tropical, gain some strength and hit the Carolinas pretty good.

We will be on the nasty side, but it'll still be just storm conditions.  Not at all like Wilma I wouldn't think.  At least my take....

:capn:


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Capn Jimbo Offline
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Posted: Aug. 30 2006,18:39

Call it wrong and I know I'd hear about it - call it right (and I did) and not a word, lol.   Right on the money.  Now in retrospect I think the "system" blew this one badly.  Up until Ernesto the tone and predictions were reasonable and calm.  But then a number of things happened beginning with Ernesto's jog over Haiti and the inclusion of Miami in the "cone of death".

1.  The media started hyping the one-year anniversary of Katrina and focused on destruction and terror.

2.  Although the tracks moved east a bit, the knowledgable consensus was still more toward the west side of the state.  But all we heard about was our SE inclusion in the cone.   And despite the fact that, except for about 5 minutes, Ernesto was a tropical storm at best - and not much of one.  

3.  Despite the fact that Haiti trashed it's circulation.  Despite the fact that Cuba finished the job.  Despite Ernesto's resumption of a west northwest path.

4.  No, all we kept hearing was that the conditions were ideal for a rapid spin-up after Cuba - small volatile system, no shear, and plenty of hot, throbbing water.  No question they said, just a question of extent, a very possible Cat 1.  Maybe worse!!!  With non-stop comparisons to other bad, bad hurricanes that did just that.  

The dreaded crossing of the Florida Straits was the key failure I believe.

5.  A state of emergency is declared.  The Sheriff makes it clear looting will not be tolerated.  People are begged to complete preparations and get off the streets by 5 pm.  Gas stations and food stores are inundated.  Then....

Nothing.  Nada. Zip.  And ya shoulda seen Brian Norcross - pasty, nervous, ashamed and upset - when he finally had to announce that the event was, for all practical purposes, an extended summer storm.  

And it was barely that.  Really.

The media and prediction system should be ashamed.  This was crying wolf at it's worst.  A tremendous disservice to us all.  This hyped performance will be countereffective.

And now they are all dancing on tippytoes trying to convince us this was really a "valuable dry run" and how well we all reacted, the real result is a loss of credibility and the probability that fewer people will prepare when a real event occurs.

:capn:


Edited by Capn Jimbo on Aug. 30 2006,18:40

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Kodiaz Offline
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Posted: Sep. 03 2006,17:33

Jim after the MSM's totally bogus forecast I really miss Gary Gray.

I checked his site seems he's working for a company called UBS which is some kind of financial business.

Man his forecasts were the best.
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