Group: Super Administrators
Joined: Jan. 2004
||Posted: Aug. 30 2006,18:39
Call it wrong and I know I'd hear about it - call it right (and I did) and not a word, lol. Right on the money. Now in retrospect I think the "system" blew this one badly. Up until Ernesto the tone and predictions were reasonable and calm. But then a number of things happened beginning with Ernesto's jog over Haiti and the inclusion of Miami in the "cone of death".
1. The media started hyping the one-year anniversary of Katrina and focused on destruction and terror.
2. Although the tracks moved east a bit, the knowledgable consensus was still more toward the west side of the state. But all we heard about was our SE inclusion in the cone. And despite the fact that, except for about 5 minutes, Ernesto was a tropical storm at best - and not much of one.
3. Despite the fact that Haiti trashed it's circulation. Despite the fact that Cuba finished the job. Despite Ernesto's resumption of a west northwest path.
4. No, all we kept hearing was that the conditions were ideal for a rapid spin-up after Cuba - small volatile system, no shear, and plenty of hot, throbbing water. No question they said, just a question of extent, a very possible Cat 1. Maybe worse!!! With non-stop comparisons to other bad, bad hurricanes that did just that.
The dreaded crossing of the Florida Straits was the key failure I believe.
5. A state of emergency is declared. The Sheriff makes it clear looting will not be tolerated. People are begged to complete preparations and get off the streets by 5 pm. Gas stations and food stores are inundated. Then....
Nothing. Nada. Zip. And ya shoulda seen Brian Norcross - pasty, nervous, ashamed and upset - when he finally had to announce that the event was, for all practical purposes, an extended summer storm.
And it was barely that. Really.
The media and prediction system should be ashamed. This was crying wolf at it's worst. A tremendous disservice to us all. This hyped performance will be countereffective.
And now they are all dancing on tippytoes trying to convince us this was really a "valuable dry run" and how well we all reacted, the real result is a loss of credibility and the probability that fewer people will prepare when a real event occurs.
Edited by Capn Jimbo on Aug. 30 2006,18:40
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